Federal Marketplace Index · Measured. Reconciled. Public. data as of 2026-07-01 · built 2026-07-08
$3.45T
federal contract dollars measured & reconciled, FY2022–FY2026
3.6%
of small-business dollars the mandatory Rule of Two still reaches
−9.8%
small-business suppliers in the federal market, FY2022→FY2025

Independent, reproducible measures of the federal small-business marketplace.

The Federal Marketplace Index™ tracks where federal contract dollars actually flow, how much of the marketplace mandatory small-business protections actually reach, and which way both are trending — from roughly 30 million public contract records, reconciled against the government's own published totals. Every number can be rebuilt by anyone, from public data, with the code on this site.

Where the mandatory Rule of Two applies

Share of five-year contract dollars (FY2022–FY2026) in each protection layer, across every documented socioeconomic category. The teal band — standalone awards between the micro-purchase threshold and the simplified acquisition threshold — is the only layer where small-business set-asides are mandated by statute. Everything above it rests on regulation, or on nothing.

Contract dollars by Rule of Two protection layer

Percent of each category's FY2022–FY2026 dollars
source: exposure_layers.csv · FY2022–FY2026 · reconciled to SBA goaling figures · methodology

The small-business supplier base is shrinking

Distinct small-business suppliers winning federal contract dollars, by fiscal year. The count fell every complete year of the window — from 62,862 in FY2022 to 56,728 in FY2025 — even as total contract spending rose. FY2026 is a partial year, shown separately and not comparable to the complete years.

Distinct small-business suppliers by fiscal year

FY2022–FY2025 complete; FY2026 partial
source: vendor_trend.csv · FY2022–FY2026 · reconciled to SBA goaling figures · methodology

The migration into the order channel

Share of dollars flowing through task and delivery orders, by fiscal year — all federal dollars against small business. Small-business dependence on the order channel has risen every year of the window while the overall market's share has held roughly stable. The order channel is where the mandatory Rule of Two has the weakest footing, so where the money is moving matters. Per-category detail is in the downloadable series.

Order-channel share of dollars by fiscal year

FY2026 is a partial year
source: order_channel_share_by_fy.csv · FY2022–FY2026 · reconciled to SBA goaling figures · methodology
Version 0. This is an early public release, first published to accompany formal comments filed in the FAR Overhaul rulemakings (FAR Cases 2026-001, -002, -005, -007). Additional measures — new entrants, vendor concentration, and district-level views — join on the quarterly schedule. See the changelog for exactly what changed and when.